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Prediction markets for Frontier
When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights?
Nov 16, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16171763
OptionProbability
99
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?
Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
12%chance
10844457
OptionVotes
2708
369
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
Jan 17, 9:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.56%chance
9042786
OptionVotes
1050
952
OptionVotes
1152
868
SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.77%chance
291806
OptionVotes
1025
976
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.02%chance
3192
OptionVotes
1020
981
Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.06%chance
2150
OptionVotes
1150
870
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.51%chance
4140
OptionVotes
1140
877
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
50.47%chance
3107
OptionVotes
1059
1041
Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?
Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.69%chance
390
OptionVotes
1006
994
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.89%chance
380
OptionVotes
1018
982
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.5%chance
270
OptionVotes
1030
971