Frontier News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Frontier
Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.6%chance
154159
OptionVotes
13624
8759
Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?
Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
91.72%chance
193739
OptionVotes
3341
301
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM
47%chance
343014
OptionVotes
1062
942
SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.59%chance
332308
OptionVotes
1008
992
Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
48%chance
6423
OptionVotes
1041
961
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.28%chance
5422
OptionVotes
1206
829
Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.98%chance
16402
OptionVotes
1149
969
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.02%chance
3192
OptionVotes
1020
981
Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?
Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
44.97%chance
4190
OptionVotes
1106
904
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
48.12%chance
4157
OptionVotes
1091
1011
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.51%chance
4140
OptionVotes
1140
877
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.5%chance
270
OptionVotes
1030
971