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Prediction markets for Fu
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.32%chance
387910107104
OptionVotes
10888
10453
Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?
Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
84%chance
1301057730
OptionVotes
1051
745
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.99%chance
874488045
OptionVotes
16267
11413
Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?
May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM
10.9%chance
79222374
OptionVotes
170510
16369
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47%chance
149118941
OptionVotes
10619
9417
Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)
Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
46.82%chance
350109960
OptionVotes
1066
938
OptionVotes
1157
907
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM
32.81%chance
6762104
OptionVotes
1027
949
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83%chance
11419905
OptionVotes
4405
1278
Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025?
Jun 2, 6:13 PMApr 15, 6:59 AM
46.41%chance
169425
OptionVotes
21548
12824
Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?
May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM
54.99%chance
211304
OptionVotes
11052
9048
If I play Kung Fu Chess against someone who's rated at least 1800 in regular chess, will I win?
Jan 31, 11:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
32.78%chance
7242
OptionVotes
167
162
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