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Prediction markets for Hammond
Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?
May 8, 10:15 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM
10.16%chance
5621736
OptionVotes
1366
913
Will A.I. technology lead to regime change and /or state collapse in a UN member state by 2043?
Aug 28, 10:52 PMDec 5, 8:59 PM
67.54%chance
19445
OptionVotes
1084
950
At least one member of the Top Gear/Grand Tour trio (Clarkson, Hammond, May) passes away in 2025
Jan 18, 11:34 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
8.13%chance
9352
OptionVotes
336
30
Will Winston Peters be the leader of NZ First at the end of the next parliamentary term (likely 2026)?
Nov 28, 1:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM
68.08%chance
6116
OptionVotes
201
117
Will a new episode of The Grand Tour be released in 2025?
Jan 24, 5:11 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM
23.43%chance
472
OptionVotes
128
37
Which of the current hosts of the Great British Baking Show will leave first?
Nov 28, 7:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
320
OptionProbability
34
27
24
16
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