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Prediction markets for Hollywood
OptionVotes
4239
483
A major hollywood movie about Covid comes out portraying the CCP negatively before 2035
May 2, 5:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
64.03%chance
411994
OptionVotes
1119
913
OptionProbability
97
96
92
88
81
79
73
72
68
67
66
58
48
47
45
41
41
41
40
39
37
34
32
29
23
15
4
2
Who will publicly say they have/had an AI bot as romantic and/or sexual partner before 2030?
Dec 30, 8:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
141194
OptionProbability
92
81
75
69
59
49
48
45
45
43
42
37
36
27
24
13
Will Manifold be mentioned in a mainstream Hollywood movie before 2030?
Apr 20, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.23%chance
24927
OptionVotes
1195
953
Will video-creating AIs make Hollywood movies significantly cheaper to make by 2033?
Apr 30, 1:00 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM
79.95%chance
13312
OptionVotes
1003
905
If there is an OpenAI Hollywood adaptation before 2026, what will it be?
Dec 6, 1:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
6170
OptionProbability
43
43
10
3
Will Robert De Niro get a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame by EOY 2030?
Mar 10, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.33%chance
8109
OptionVotes
282
209
Hollywood American Revolution film box office top 10 by July 4, 2076?
Jul 30, 8:39 AMJul 4, 10:59 PM
35.82%chance
7109
OptionVotes
134
75
Will Leonardo Di Caprio get a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame by EOY 2030?
Mar 10, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
69.62%chance
8106
OptionVotes
290
176
Will Clint Eastwood get a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame by EOY 2030?
Mar 10, 6:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.19%chance
791
OptionVotes
279
178
Will Al Pacino get a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame by EOY 2030?
Mar 10, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61.59%chance
230
OptionVotes
170
117
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