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Prediction markets for Islands
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
4.9%chance
13925601
OptionVotes
25089
9790
Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.53%chance
6116057
OptionVotes
1765
574
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.49%chance
5212366
OptionVotes
3035
1410
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.27%chance
352998
OptionVotes
1004
986
Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?
Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
39.1%chance
251344
OptionVotes
1043
905
Will the .io ccTLD be substantially affected by the cession of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius?
Oct 11, 2:43 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
30.12%chance
11954
OptionVotes
1523
657
Will unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?
Sep 20, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
72.49%chance
12884
OptionVotes
1623
616
OptionVotes
1424
879
OptionVotes
1510
662
OptionVotes
1406
711
Will the new Washington Bridge in Rhode Island be completed on time?
Feb 1, 6:02 PMDec 2, 11:59 PM
38.89%chance
5327
OptionVotes
1253
798
South Korea: Will Gadeok Island New Airport open before 2030?
Apr 23, 1:02 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM
28.14%chance
6249
OptionVotes
1219
888
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