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Prediction markets for Islands
Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.84%chance
6015997
OptionVotes
1705
594
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
28.67%chance
4812232
OptionVotes
2940
1447
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.5%chance
839342
OptionVotes
8763
5599
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
38.9%chance
312681
OptionVotes
1071
854
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.53%chance
341502
OptionVotes
1173
922
Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?
Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
39.1%chance
251344
OptionVotes
1043
905
Will the .io ccTLD be substantially affected by the cession of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius?
Oct 11, 2:43 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
30.12%chance
11954
OptionVotes
1523
657
Will unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?
Sep 20, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
66.76%chance
10678
OptionVotes
1417
706
OptionVotes
1510
662
OptionVotes
1406
711
Will the new Washington Bridge in Rhode Island be completed on time?
Feb 1, 6:02 PMDec 2, 11:59 PM
37.54%chance
5290
OptionVotes
1290
775
South Korea: Will Gadeok Island New Airport open before 2030?
Apr 23, 1:02 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM
28.14%chance
6249
OptionVotes
1219
888
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