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Prediction markets for Legislature
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
25.96%chance
774387094
OptionVotes
6480
3424
US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028
Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
39.13%chance
74647
OptionVotes
12472
8018
US legislature (House or Senate) fails to swear in / seat an elected member after midterms
Feb 7, 8:33 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM
24%chance
61663
OptionVotes
1780
562
OptionProbability
84
71
67
57
54
54
52
50
47
46
43
38
29
25
24
21
9
Dems+GOP at all times hold >96% of each: US House, Senate, Governors, and state legislatures
Sep 6, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
93%chance
5801
OptionVotes
356
101
Will Spain approve a tax on properties bought by non-EU residents during the current Sánchez legislature?
Jan 15, 5:27 PMFeb 1, 1:00 AM
56%chance
14398
OptionVotes
113
89
Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?
Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.81%chance
20389
OptionVotes
1017
985
Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?
Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM
50.62%chance
3110
OptionVotes
1012
988
Will any US state or DC use proportional representation for their state legislatures by the end of 2028?
Feb 20, 4:44 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
22.57%chance
573
OptionVotes
203
95
Members of the legislature (congress, parliament) in a country come to blows this year? mega-market
Mar 22, 7:24 PMDec 31, 8:16 PM
433
OptionProbability
59
54
51
47
Massachusetts auditor to audit state legislature by January 2027?
Aug 2, 4:40 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM
55.24%chance
231
OptionVotes
111
90
Democrats flip at least one NH state legislature chamber?
Jan 6, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
80.66%chance
225
OptionVotes
103
99
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