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Top stories

Putin Says Russian Troops Advancing Along Entire Ukraine Frontline, Ignores Trump Ultimatum Amid Peace Talks

Authors

7

1 day ago

Putin Says Russian Forces Advance Across Entire Ukraine Front

Authors

5

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Luhansk

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

661140330

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

78

7

6

6

3

1

After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?

Oct 10, 5:03 AMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

14267376

OptionProbability

Chernihiv

Kyiv (oblast)

Sumy

Odessa

Mykolaiv

Kharkiv

Zaporizhzhia

Kherson

Donestk

Crimea

Luhansk

91

89

88

88

86

73

22

22

8

5

5

Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?

Oct 8, 2:10 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

56.41%chance

775214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

1005

What cities will change hands before the Ukraine-Russia war ends

Apr 2, 11:01 AMDec 10, 4:59 AM

263241

OptionProbability

Melitopol

Mariupol

Sevastopol

Odesa

Luhansk

Kharkiv

20

18

17

9

8

8

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

Jan 5, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

27.66%chance

282312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

674

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

281607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1751

881

Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025?

Dec 19, 2:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

11.29%chance

23890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Will Russia officially recognize Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk as part of Ukraine before 2030?

Jun 17, 2:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.04%chance

16708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

830

Will Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?

Jun 17, 2:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.64%chance

10600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

101

Will Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?

Jun 17, 2:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.83%chance

16574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

96

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

113

If Ukraine officially gives Luhansk to Russia, will Ukraine be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Jul 4, 10:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.41%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

86

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