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Prediction markets for Market Street
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.6%chance
988744286
OptionVotes
10662
9287
Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?
Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.4%chance
4122857
OptionVotes
1185
844
OptionVotes
3762
454
OptionVotes
2902
345
OptionVotes
1155
866
OptionVotes
6420
5689
Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM
28.95%chance
312940
OptionVotes
1567
638
OptionVotes
1050
952
Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?
May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM
31.26%chance
91154
OptionVotes
1483
674
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.42%chance
15577
OptionVotes
1455
887
US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028
Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
45.42%chance
5298
OptionVotes
1096
912
OptionVotes
1061
942
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