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Morris News

    Prediction markets for Morris

    Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

    Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    37676611

    OptionProbability

    Elon Musk

    Other

    Jensen Huang

    Sam Altman

    Jeff Bezos

    Larry Ellison

    Bernard Arnault

    Donald Trump

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Satoshi Nakamoto

    Vladimir Putin

    Vitalik Buterin

    Michael Saylor

    Bill Gates

    Larry Page

    Warren Buffett

    me

    Steve Ballmer

    Gautam Adani

    Mukesh Ambani

    An AGI

    Brian Armstrong

    Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

    Tim Draper

    Jack Dorsey

    Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

    @Mira

    Sergey Brin

    Michael Dell

    Amancio Ortega

    Carlos Slim Helu

    Eric Schmidt

    Masayoshi Son

    Dave Tepper

    Ken Griffin

    Eduardo Saverin

    Morris Chang

    36

    29

    14

    9

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Joe Henrich

    Scott Alexander

    Sarah Paine

    Tamay Besiroglu

    Nate Soares

    Ajeya Cotra

    Tyler Cowen (not including interview at the Progress Conference released 9th Jan)

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Amanda Askell

    Jack Clark

    Doris Taylor

    Sam Altman

    Zvi Mowshowitz

    Ian Morris

    Michael Levin

    Paul J Werbos

    Sundar Pichai

    Elon Musk

    Andrej Karpathy

    Joscha Bach

    Mustafa Suleyman

    Demis Hassabis

    agnes callard

    Robert Caro

    Ilya Sutskever

    Noam Brown

    Tanner Greer

    Patrick McKenzie

    Robin Hanson

    Curtis Yarvin

    Michael Dell

    Matt Levine

    George Hotz

    François Chollet

    Joe Carlsmith

    Nick Bostrom

    Hans Moravec

    Janus @repligate

    Yann LeCun

    Jeff Bezos

    Helen Toner

    Barack Obama

    Richard Hanania

    Bill Clinton

    Bill Gates

    roon

    David Reich

    Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)

    Charles III

    Mira Murati

    Guillaume Verdon (@BasedBeffJezos on X)

    Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)

    Destiny

    Kamala Harris

    Donald Trump

    100

    100

    100

    100

    69

    67

    54

    50

    45

    45

    45

    41

    31

    31

    30

    27

    26

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    22

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    14

    14

    14

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    10

    9

    8

    7

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    6

    6

    Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

    Feb 3, 5:39 AMSep 1, 8:59 PM
    42%chance
    1410385

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    7403

    4722

    Who are you aligned with?

    Mar 31, 1:34 PMJan 1, 2:27 PM
    1010199

    OptionProbability

    Mark Manson

    Adam M. Curry

    Jaan Tallinn

    Eric Czuleger

    Jack Dorsey

    Bryan Johnson

    Liron Shapira

    Andrew Bustamonte

    Graham Handcock

    Andrew Gallimore

    Hamilton Morris

    Zach De La Rocha

    Audrey Tang

    Scott Aaronson

    Scott Alexander

    Rick Rubin

    Nathan Young

    KRS-1

    Max Tegmark

    Rob Miles

    Connor Leahy

    Samo Burja

    George Hotz

    Jan Leike

    Andrew Huberman

    Karl Marx

    David Shapiro

    Tim Kennedy

    Sean Carroll

    Roger Penrose

    Tim Ferris

    Mark Laita

    Chris Ramsey

    David Grush

    Nick Bostrom

    Permendes

    Pythagoras

    David Chalmers

    Roman Yampolskiy

    Stuart Russell

    Brian Armstrong

    Nate Soares

    Doug Lenat

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Nathan Labenz

    Julian Dorey

    Yoshua Bengio

    Zvi Mowshowitz

    The user @krantz

    Dave Smith

    David Deutsch

    Ilya Sutskever

    Hal Putoff

    Eric Weinstein

    Lex Fridman

    Balaji Srinivasan

    Daniel Sheehan

    Daniel Hillis

    Tom Campbell

    Curt Jaimungal

    Robin Hanson

    Andrew Yang

    Matthew Pines

    Jesse Michels

    Danny Jones

    Jack Kruse

    Ben Goertzle

    Jake Barber

    David Hume

    Immanuel Kant

    Ludwig Wittgenstein

    Bertrand Russell

    Dan Faggela

    Robert Monroe

    Mike Benz

    Chris Bledsoe

    Julian Assange

    Micheal Levin

    Shawn Ryan

    Jeffrey Mishlove

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Steven Greer

    Harald Malmgren

    Noam Chomsky

    Matt Beall

    Avi Loeb

    Robert Epstein

    Narendra Modi

    Jeffrey Sachs

    Gary Nolan

    Daryl Cooper

    John McAfee

    Diogenes

    Daryl Davis

    David Goggins

    Tucker Carlson

    Suchir Balaji

    Alex Jones

    Steven Bonell (Destiny)

    Bernie Sanders

    Joe Rogan

    Dick Cheney

    Ezra Klein

    Sam Altman

    Dario Amodei

    Larry Ellison

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Donald Trump

    George Washington

    Robert Kennedy Jr

    Douglas Murry

    Elon Musk

    Palmer Luckey

    Peter Tiel

    Joeseph Farrell

    Jeremy Corbell

    Amjad Masad

    Ammon Hillman

    Jordan Peterson

    Aaron Rodgers

    Sergey Brin

    Steve Kwast

    Rob Reiner

    Eric Prince

    Andrew Tate

    Alex Karp

    Vladimir Putin

    97

    96

    96

    96

    96

    94

    94

    94

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    94

    94

    94

    94

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    94

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    80

    80

    79

    77

    74

    73

    72

    66

    66

    66

    66

    66

    66

    63

    59

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    57

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    36

    34

    20

    OptionProbability

    #149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

    #151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

    #169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

    #170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

    #150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

    #152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

    #153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

    #154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

    #155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

    #156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

    #157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

    #158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

    #159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

    #161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

    #162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

    #163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

    #166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

    #168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

    #171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

    #173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

    #174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

    #176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models

    #160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

    #164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

    #165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

    #175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

    #145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

    #146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

    #167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

    #172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

    #144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

    #147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

    #148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

    45

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    38

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    34

    OptionProbability

    Christian Pulisic

    Chris Richards

    Malik Tillman

    Antonee Robinson

    Weston McKennie

    Tyler Adams

    Diego Luna

    Matt Freese

    Miles Robinson

    Yunus Musah

    Timothy Weah

    Johnny Cardoso

    Matt Turner

    Sergiño Dest

    Gio Reyna

    Joe Scally

    Folarin Balogun

    Ricardo Pepi

    Luca de la Torre

    Cameron Carter-Vickers

    Josh Sargent

    Ethan Horvath

    Mark McKenzie

    Patrick Schulte

    Auston Trusty

    Tanner Tessmann

    Patrick Agyemang

    Alex Freeman

    Haji Wright

    Brenden Aaronson

    Alejandro Zendejas

    Jordan Morris

    Walker Zimmerman

    Sebastian Berhalter

    Zack Steffen

    Aidan Morris

    Tim Ream

    Shaq Moore

    Kellyn Acosta

    Marlon Fossey

    Brian White

    Quinn Sullivan

    Damion Downs

    Jack McGlynn

    Kristoffer Lund

    John Tolkin

    Sean Johnson

    Timmy Tillman

    Lucho Acosta

    Drake Callender

    Jesús Ferreira

    Brandon Vázquez

    Cade Cowell

    Daryl Dike

    Paxten Aaronson

    Taha Habroune

    Paul Arriola

    Emmanuel Sabbi

    Julian Gressel

    DeAndre Yedlin

    90

    82

    81

    79

    76

    75

    75

    75

    71

    71

    71

    71

    70

    70

    69

    69

    67

    66

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    64

    63

    54

    54

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    46

    46

    46

    44

    42

    41

    38

    38

    37

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    33

    31

    30

    30

    28

    25

    25

    22

    19

    17

    17

    17

    15

    14

    9

    8

    Who will @Aella marry?

    Jun 13, 12:17 PMJan 1, 12:58 PM
    191896

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Nate Soares

    Adam M. Curry

    Krantz

    Jesse Michels

    Matthew Pines

    Lex Fridman

    Danny Jones

    Nick Decker

    Tim Ferris

    Hamilton Morris

    Dan Faggela

    Hamilton Morris

    George Hotz

    Nathan Labenz

    Zoltan Bathory

    40

    28

    16

    4

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Dan Quinn - Washington Commanders

    Jim Harbaugh - Los Angeles Chargers

    Mike Macdonald - Seattle Seahawks

    Dave Canales - Carolina Panthers

    Brian Callahan - Tennessee Titans

    Raheem Morris - Atlanta Falcons

    A̶n̶t̶o̶n̶i̶o̶ ̶P̶i̶e̶r̶c̶e̶ ̶-̶ ̶L̶a̶s̶ ̶V̶e̶g̶a̶s̶ ̶R̶a̶i̶d̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶-̶ ̶F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶(̶1̶/̶7̶/̶2̶0̶2̶5̶)̶

    J̶e̶r̶o̶d̶ ̶M̶a̶y̶o̶ ̶-̶ ̶N̶e̶w̶ ̶E̶n̶g̶l̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶P̶a̶t̶r̶i̶o̶t̶s̶ ̶-̶ ̶F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶1̶/̶5̶/̶2̶0̶2̶5̶

    29

    25

    18

    12

    7

    7

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Charlotte - Tim Albin

    Memphis - Ryan Silverfield

    Temple - K. C. Keeler

    Tulane - Jon Sumrall

    UAB - Trent Dilfer

    Army - Jeff Monken

    East Carolina - Blake Harrell

    Florida Atlantic - Zach Kittley

    Navy - Brian Newberry

    North Texas - Eric Morris

    Rice - Scott Abell

    Tulsa - Tre Lamb

    UTSA - Jeff Traylor

    South Florida - Alex Golesh

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    35

    35

    35

    32

    32

    21

    18

    18

    14

    Manifold Scouts: NFL Head Coach Peak Success

    Mar 11, 7:48 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM
    5380

    OptionProbability

    Zac Taylor - Cincinnati Bengals

    Kyle Shanahan - San Francisco 49ers

    Dan Campbell - Detroit Lions

    Sean McDermott - Buffalo Bills

    Matt LaFleur - Green Bay Packers

    Dan Quinn - Washington Commanders

    Mike Vrabel - New England Patriots

    Ben Johnson - Chicago Bears

    Sean Payton - Denver Broncos

    Jonathan Gannon - Arizona Cardinals

    Atlanta Falcons - Raheem Morris

    Liam Coen - Jacksonville Jaguars

    Kellen Moore - New Orleans Saints

    Brian Schottenheimer - Dallas Cowboys

    Dave Canales - Carolina Panthers

    Kevin Stefanski - Cleveland Browns

    DeMeco Ryans - Houston Texans

    Shane Steichen - Indianapolis Colts

    Pete Carroll - Las Vegas Raiders

    Jim Harbaugh - Los Angeles Chargers

    Mike McDaniel - Miami Dolphins

    Kevin O'Connell - Minnesota Vikings

    Aaron Glenn - New York Jets

    Mike Macdonald - Seattle Seahawks

    Todd Bowles - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Brian Callahan - Tennessee Titans

    Aaron Glenn - New York Jets

    Brian Daboll - New York Giants

    80

    80

    67

    60

    60

    60

    55

    55

    55

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    339

    68

    Will Morris Chang live longer than Warren Buffett?

    Nov 10, 8:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    60.15%chance
    212

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    82

    60

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