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Prediction markets for Nanded
OptionProbability
60
56
52
52
51
48
34
30
OptionVotes
484
53
Will mechanistic/transformer interpretability [eg Neel Nanda] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
Sep 18, 7:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
9.85%chance
4190
OptionVotes
270
32
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