Old City News

Israeli Forces Injure 37 in Nablus, Abduct Child, Detain Journalist Amid West Bank Raids and Sebastia Militarization

5 months ago

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

65445

OptionVotes

YES

1089

918

Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

23.93%chance

143846

OptionVotes

YES

1783

561

Will there be anywhere childfree city before 2030?

Aug 8, 2:49 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

10%chance

493247

OptionVotes

YES

1334

928

Conditional on moving to [city], what is P(my friend has a primary partner in March 2026)?

Mar 22, 10:58 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

121684

OptionProbability

Seattle

Chicago

New York City

Boston

Washington DC

Portland

San Francisco

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM

5.12%chance

12959

OptionVotes

YES

431

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

69.01%chance

9702

OptionVotes

YES

1492

670

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

42.14%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

1172

853

Will I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?

Oct 27, 4:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.97%chance

9321

OptionVotes

YES

396

104

Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.23%chance

7215

OptionVotes

YES

822

777

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

196

Roadtrip: Gulf leg favorite state

Jan 10, 3:40 AMApr 2, 2:29 AM

475

OptionProbability

Louisiana (TBD)

Alabama (resolves NO if I don't have a non-Auburn stop)

Mississippi (TBD)

Arkansas (TBD)

Will AI convert my old SimCity 2000 cities into Cities Skylines 2 cities by 2030?

Mar 19, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.89%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

159

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
Israeli Forces Injure 37 in Nablus, Abduct Child, Detain Journalist Amid West Bank Raids and Sebastia Militarization
Authors
7
5 months ago

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Prediction markets for Old City

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Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Will there be anywhere childfree city before 2030?

Conditional on moving to [city], what is P(my friend has a primary partner in March 2026)?

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Will I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?

Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Roadtrip: Gulf leg favorite state

Will AI convert my old SimCity 2000 cities into Cities Skylines 2 cities by 2030?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram