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Prediction markets for Old City
Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM
49.09%chance
75545
OptionVotes
1018
982
OptionProbability
93
91
88
85
84
82
80
48
31
0
Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
18.73%chance
154146
OptionVotes
2083
480
OptionVotes
1334
928
OptionVotes
1425
702
OptionProbability
24
16
13
13
13
11
9
Will I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?
Oct 27, 4:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
6.34%chance
11376
OptionVotes
376
106
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
63.06%chance
8279
OptionVotes
105
103
Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?
May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.55%chance
7225
OptionVotes
123
100
Which musicians/ensembles will be featured in the Grand Theft Auto VI soundtrack at release?
Dec 7, 8:19 AMNov 20, 7:59 AM
8183
OptionProbability
81
75
70
70
66
66
66
66
62
62
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
50
50
OptionProbability
17
16
14
14
14
14
12
Will AI convert my old SimCity 2000 cities into Cities Skylines 2 cities by 2030?
Mar 19, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.89%chance
361
OptionVotes
159
81
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