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Prediction markets for Old City
Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM
49.09%chance
75545
OptionVotes
1018
982
OptionProbability
93
91
88
84
82
80
79
48
31
0
Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
18.51%chance
164161
OptionVotes
2098
477
OptionVotes
1334
928
OptionVotes
377
27
London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)
Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM
5.12%chance
12959
OptionVotes
431
23
OptionProbability
95
77
0
OptionProbability
23
17
14
14
12
10
10
Will I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?
Oct 27, 4:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
6.34%chance
11376
OptionVotes
376
106
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
76.29%chance
10325
OptionVotes
154
83
Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?
May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35.02%chance
7275
OptionVotes
150
83
Will AI convert my old SimCity 2000 cities into Cities Skylines 2 cities by 2030?
Mar 19, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.89%chance
361
OptionVotes
159
81
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