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Top stories

Trump-Putin Summit Papers Left on Alaska Hotel Printer Spur Security Questions

US Foreign Policy

Trump-Putin Summit Papers Left on Alaska Hotel Printer Spur Security Questions

Authors

21

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Olympia

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

63.05%chance

216122009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10846

8080

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70114952

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

80

10

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.28%chance

6226753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12280

8032

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

488440

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030 or later

2028

2029

2024

2025

33

26

19

12

8

1

1

Who will win the 2026 Science Olympiad National Tournament [Division C]?

Nov 27, 8:09 PMMay 23, 10:59 PM

297679

OptionProbability

Troy H.S. (Fullerton, CA)

Monta Vista H.S. (Cupertino, CA)

Montgomery H.S. (Skillman, NJ)

Mason H.S. (Mason, OH)

Mountain View H.S. (Mountain View, CA)

Seven Lakes H.S. (Katy, TX)

Harriton H.S. (Rosemont, PA)

Solon H.S. (Solon, OH)

New Trier H.S. (Winnetka, IL)

Madison West H.S. (Madison, WI)

Marquette University H.S. (Milwaukee, WI)

'Iolani School (Honolulu, HI)

Novi H.S. (Novi, MI)

Acton-Boxborough Regional H.S. (Acton, MA)

West Windsor-Plainsboro H.S. South (West Windsor, NJ)

Other

Lexington H.S. (Lexington, MA)

Pioneer H.S. (Ann Arbor, MI)

Liberal Arts and Science Academy (Austin, TX)

Castro Valley H.S. (Castro Valley, CA)

39

12

12

9

9

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

West coast best coast (in math olympiads)?

Nov 21, 8:22 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

17.32%chance

363929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

607

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.05%chance

262827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

914

Will Century High School (MN) qualify for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027?

Mar 17, 3:08 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

4.73%chance

122678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

449

22

Which of these Olympiad goals will I achieve in 2026?

Jan 25, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9571

OptionProbability

Science Bowl Nationals Qualification

USNCO High Honors

USNCO Camp

USAMO Qualification

100

83

49

0

Will I qualify for at least one international olympiad?

Nov 21, 1:03 PMMay 28, 12:53 PM

58.65%chance

7480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will "That Mad Olympiad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 17, 4:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.7%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

984

Who will win Mr Olympia classic 2026

Jan 22, 9:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

252

OptionProbability

Mike Summerfeld

Ramon Dino

Wesley Vissers

Other

70

10

10

10

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