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When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
87154421
OptionProbability
44
35
10
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
79
42
36
6
6
5
5
5
5
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.56%chance
334011
OptionVotes
1018
672
Will Century High School (MN) qualify for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027?
Mar 17, 3:08 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM
12%chance
172990
OptionVotes
271
37
Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?
Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
3%chance
122923
OptionVotes
757
15
Will the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad) be held in this country?
Jul 23, 12:49 AMJul 23, 12:41 AM
9754
OptionProbability
98
92
90
90
85
OptionProbability
94
3
1
1
Will "That Mad Olympiad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 17, 4:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.7%chance
2270
OptionVotes
1102
984
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