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Prediction markets for Olympia
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
5.14%chance
154150007
OptionVotes
49118
4323
When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
68113453
OptionProbability
70
19
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
Jul 23, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
81.71%chance
237100126
OptionVotes
2562
566
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
67.85%chance
6617807
OptionVotes
10162
9359
Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?
May 18, 2:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
8.64%chance
2511259
OptionVotes
3252
308
When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?
Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
485058
OptionProbability
26
21
19
17
9
7
1
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
54.94%chance
184642
OptionVotes
1104
906
OptionVotes
2088
587
OptionProbability
100
100
100
99
0
0
0
0
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.05%chance
262827
OptionVotes
1313
914
Will "That Mad Olympiad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 17, 4:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.7%chance
2270
OptionVotes
1102
984
Will I qualify for at least one international olympiad?
Nov 21, 1:03 PMMay 28, 12:53 PM
45.9%chance
4210
OptionVotes
1086
921
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