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Prediction markets for Page
Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
1.02%chance
73125453
OptionVotes
25871
431
Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
98.57%chance
2834266
OptionVotes
8306
120
Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?
Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
2.75%chance
234192
OptionVotes
4668
746
Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.21%chance
102486
OptionVotes
1357
737
Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?
Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
11.85%chance
92142
OptionVotes
2727
367
Will Sydney Von Arx have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Oct 4, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.29%chance
51728
OptionVotes
2354
425
Will Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Jul 8, 6:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
76.3%chance
10881
OptionVotes
1795
557
How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?
Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
46.2%chance
18872
OptionProbability
1147
675
By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?
Apr 9, 2:28 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
62.04%chance
8181
OptionVotes
155
111
OptionVotes
130
77
Will Grok create automated 2-page biographies of any Twitter user by EOY2026?
Jan 30, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.02%chance
120
OptionVotes
120
83
Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?
Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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