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Philippines News

    Prediction markets for Philippines

    Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

    Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
    6457538

    OptionProbability

    China sanctioned by US + Europe

    Taiwan blockaded before invasion

    Japan allows use of airbases

    CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

    Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

    CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

    Japan attacked by Chinese

    China attacks Japan

    Malacca Strait blockaded

    Guam attacked by Chinese

    Oil shortages in China

    US destroys TSMC factories

    US military intervention

    Japanese military intervention

    Taiwan surrenders

    Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

    Philippines allows use of airbases

    Philippines attacked by Chinese

    US combat troops in Taiwan

    US aircraft carrier sunk

    Chinese mainland bombed

    Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

    Food shortages in China

    South Korea allows use of airbases

    South Korean military intervention

    Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

    European military intervention

    Indian military intervention

    China attacks South Korea

    Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

    Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

    Tactical nuclear weapon used

    Nuclear weapon used against civilians

    78

    75

    69

    67

    67

    61

    60

    55

    54

    54

    52

    51

    50

    50

    49

    47

    42

    42

    41

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    39

    38

    37

    35

    33

    31

    30

    12

    10

    OptionProbability

    Canada [2025]

    Israel [2025]

    Japan [2025]

    United Kingdom [2025]

    Egypt [2025]

    Malaysia [2025]

    South Korea [2025]

    UAE [2025]

    China [2026]

    Turkey [2026]

    India [2026]

    Ukraine [2026]

    Singapore [2026]

    Indonesia [2026]

    Argentina [2026]

    Canada [2026]

    Ireland [2026]

    Mexico [2026]

    Brazil [2026]

    Australia [2026]

    Peru [2026]

    Morocco [2026]

    Taiwan [2026]

    Philippines [2026]

    Hong Kong [2026]

    Chile [2026]

    Cambodia [2026]

    South Africa [2026]

    Dominican Republic [2026]

    Macau [2026]

    Tunesia [2026]

    Tanzania [2026]

    Nepal [2026]

    Kenya [2026]

    New Zealand [2026]

    Ethiopia [2026]

    Cuba [2026]

    Iran [2026]

    Argentina [2025]

    Australia [2025]

    China [2025]

    Cuba [2025]

    India [2025]

    Iran [2025]

    Kenya [2025]

    Macau [2025]

    New Zealand [2025]

    South Africa [2025]

    Taiwan [2025]

    Brazil [2025]

    Cambodia [2025]

    Chile [2025]

    Dominican Republic [2025]

    Ethiopia [2025]

    Hong Kong [2025]

    Indonesia [2025]

    Ireland [2025]

    Mexico [2025]

    Morocco [2025]

    Nepal [2025]

    Peru [2025]

    Philippines [2025]

    Singapore [2025]

    Tanzania [2025]

    Tunesia [2025]

    Turkey [2025]

    Ukraine [2025]

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    88

    59

    45

    37

    34

    34

    34

    32

    32

    29

    28

    26

    20

    17

    17

    16

    15

    15

    14

    14

    13

    11

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    7

    7

    6

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Gold

    Iran

    South China Sea

    Pakistan

    India

    United States

    Russia

    Ukraine

    Taiwan

    China

    Venezuela

    Washington DC

    Guam

    Belarus

    Jerusalem

    Okinawa

    The Philippines

    South Korea

    Seoul

    Gaza Strip

    50

    19

    13

    12

    11

    11

    10

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    2

    Next country to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender:

    Oct 29, 4:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    575253

    OptionProbability

    Kenya

    Nigeria

    Other

    Suriname

    Portugal

    USA

    Argentina

    Philippines

    Kazakhstan

    Bhutan

    Mexico

    Uruguay

    Ukraine

    Brazil

    St. Kitts and Nevis

    Fiji

    Tonga

    Panama

    Honduras

    Costa Rica

    Switzerland

    Georgia 🇬🇪

    Qatar

    Ecuador

    Bahamas

    UAE

    USA (double, plz sell)

    USA (double, plz sell)

    21

    15

    15

    11

    10

    8

    7

    6

    5

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    104

    74

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    153

    65

    OptionProbability

    Germany

    South Korea

    France

    Japan

    Spain

    Sweden

    Other

    None

    19

    17

    15

    14

    10

    9

    9

    8

    OptionProbability

    New Zealand

    Japan

    China

    USA

    Papua New Guinea

    Indonesia

    Philippines

    Taiwan

    France

    UK

    Chile

    78

    75

    59

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    Bridge built connecting any major Philippine island through 2040

    Aug 28, 2:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    36.17%chance
    317

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    127

    97

    The Final Outcome of the Marcos Jr. Presidency

    Nov 15, 7:46 PMJun 29, 5:36 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

    Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

    Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

    Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

    Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

    Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

    Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

    Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

    Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

    Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

    Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

    Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

    Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

    Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

    Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

    Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

    Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

    Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

    Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

    Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

    Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

    Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

    Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

    Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

    Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

    Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

    Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

    Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.

    Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    OptionProbability

    Japan

    South Korea

    Philippines

    Other

    25

    25

    25

    25

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