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Top stories

Providence’s Viral ‘Nicest Judge’ Frank Caprio Dies at 88

Providence’s Viral ‘Nicest Judge’ Frank Caprio Dies at 88

Authors

63

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Providence

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

40%chance

7462310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

838

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.34%chance

2114853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8189

891

Will AI be able to provide an end-to-end plan for bioweapons production by 2026 EOY?

Jan 16, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.98%chance

2811907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2228

197

Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?

Aug 25, 5:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.2%chance

181118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

865

Will SpaceX be the cheapest ($ / kg) commercial provider to LEO on 2035-01-01

Nov 29, 10:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.09%chance

3948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

959

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?

May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

57.17%chance

19714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

879

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

752

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

876

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.92%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

When will Vikram provide the communication boxes?

Feb 4, 8:18 PMDec 31, 8:18 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Obituary
TV
Culture
Providence’s Viral ‘Nicest Judge’ Frank Caprio Dies at 88
Authors
63
1 year ago

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