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Prediction markets for Providence
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM
40%chance
7462310
OptionVotes
1057
838
Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5.34%chance
2114853
OptionVotes
8189
891
Will AI be able to provide an end-to-end plan for bioweapons production by 2026 EOY?
Jan 16, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
86.98%chance
2811907
OptionVotes
2228
197
Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?
Aug 25, 5:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.2%chance
181118
OptionVotes
1156
865
Will SpaceX be the cheapest ($ / kg) commercial provider to LEO on 2035-01-01
Nov 29, 10:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
70.09%chance
3948
OptionVotes
1008
959
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?
May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM
57.17%chance
19714
OptionVotes
1129
879
Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?
Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.55%chance
5697
OptionVotes
1050
952
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
OptionVotes
1115
1009
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.92%chance
4194
OptionVotes
1022
979
OptionVotes
1050
952