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Prediction markets for Providence
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM
32.81%chance
6762104
OptionVotes
1027
949
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027
Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM
56.96%chance
578947
OptionVotes
1150
869
Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?
Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM
72.59%chance
357380
OptionVotes
1425
745
Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20.22%chance
154156
OptionVotes
3044
1489
Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?
Jan 23, 8:03 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
67.79%chance
411593
OptionVotes
1064
805
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?
May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM
57.17%chance
19714
OptionVotes
1129
879
Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?
Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.55%chance
5697
OptionVotes
1050
952
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?
Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM
55.24%chance
4400
OptionVotes
1111
900
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.02%chance
3192
OptionVotes
1020
981
OptionVotes
1066
1035