OptionProbability
Bezalel Smotrich quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizes relations
Yoav Gallant quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
Benny Gants quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
Baseline (will be resolved to YES or NO only)
IDF takes control over Rafah
50
32
6
5
Taking territory from Gaza to create a buffer zone on the border
Taking control of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt
Conducting regular raids in Gaza (similar to the West Bank)
Stationing a permanent Israeli military presence in Gaza
Expelling lower-level members of Hamas from Gaza
81
74
72
45
OptionVotes
NO
YES
112
89
420
24
