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San Marino News

    Prediction markets for San Marino

    ⌛What will happen in my lifetime?

    Feb 28, 10:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    779858

    OptionProbability

    I attend a Manifest

    MSTR breaks $1069

    Hollow Knight: Silksong releases

    Trump dies

    bitcoin reaches $100K usd

    Bitcoin Reaches $150K USD

    I live to 50 years old

    First female USA president

    Iceland OR Norway OR Japan ban whaling

    Manifold reaches 10,000 engaged users

    Azerbaijan invades Armenia

    Manifold Outlives me

    Team Fortress 3 releases

    Bitcoin reaches $200K usd

    Quantum computers consumer available

    Human walks on mars

    You get married

    I visit Japan

    Ukraine joins NATO

    China and Taiwan invasion/conflict happens

    Sesame Street ends

    New Zealand becomes a republic

    I have a child (biological or adopted)

    I release a second Steam game after Heartseeker

    Pokemon releases 2000 or more creatures

    The first dog walks off planet (mars, moon, etc)

    Wide consumer adoption of Neuralink or other brain implants

    Trump serves a day in jail

    @strutheo wins Masters League

    Immortality (a way to completely halt aging) is invented

    Someone has died on the moon

    A portion of what is now China (according to US) becomes an independent state

    Nuclear fusion commercially producing energy at scale

    LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor

    Any of the United States, United Kingdom, France, or Germany becomes a hybrid regime according to the Economist Democracy Index

    pickleball in the olympics

    i get a neuralink or other brain chip

    Iceland Norway and Japan all ban whaling

    Venezuela invades Guyana

    Liechtenstein no longer an independant country

    I spend 1 night in jail / prison / detainment

    San Marino no longer an independant country

    i walk on the moon

    I see the first baby born off planet

    All four of the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany become hybrid regimes according to the Economist Democracy Index

    100

    100

    100

    97

    97

    96

    91

    89

    86

    77

    77

    76

    76

    75

    75

    73

    72

    69

    69

    66

    66

    66

    65

    59

    57

    57

    50

    48

    48

    47

    45

    44

    43

    39

    35

    32

    29

    23

    22

    17

    16

    13

    10

    10

    5

    Next country to join the European Union:

    Dec 6, 1:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    281342

    OptionProbability

    Montenegro

    Moldova

    Other

    North Macedonia

    Albania

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Greenland

    Iceland

    San Marino

    Ukraine

    United Kingdom

    Georgia

    Turkey

    Scotland

    Serbia

    Kosovo

    44

    34

    9

    4

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Romania

    Bulgaria

    Iceland

    Andorra

    San Marino

    Cyprus

    Gibraltar

    Albania

    Ireland

    Montenegro

    Ukraine

    UK

    99

    99

    99

    50

    50

    47

    41

    41

    38

    34

    27

    10

    What will be the 3rd country the new Pope visits?

    Oct 17, 6:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    9846

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Peru

    France

    United States

    Ukraine

    Poland

    Phillipines

    Canada

    China

    India

    Mexico

    Palestine

    Greece

    Georgia

    Brazil

    Syria

    DR Congo

    49

    6

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Estonia

    Latvia

    Ireland

    Norway

    Portugal

    Ukraine

    Moldova

    Romania

    Bulgaria

    North Macedonia

    Greece

    Kosovo

    Montenegro

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Croatia

    Slovenia

    Greece

    Cyprus

    Malta

    Georgia

    Armenia

    Azerbaijan

    Iceland

    Albania

    Northern Cyprus

    San Marino

    Liechtenstein

    Monaco

    Andorra

    Abkhazia

    Belarus

    Serbia

    Transnistria

    Sovereign Military Order of Malta

    South Ossetia

    65

    60

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

    41

    34

    34

    34

    34

    31

    31

    17

    15

    15

    13

    12

    Will San Marino win Eurovision before Poland?

    May 19, 12:35 PMMay 19, 12:34 PM
    25.93%chance
    369

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    169

    59

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