OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
Mexico survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
Canada survives group stage
3+ penalty shootout
Trump still alive at end of final match
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
20+ penalty goals
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Trump attends match
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
Players cleat falls off their foot
Neymar plays in a match
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
US scores in every single group stage match
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
South American team reaches semi-final
Champion is unbeaten
Bottle thrown on field
Champion is a first place group stage winner
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Asian player misses penalty kick
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Messi gets a yellow card
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Any host nation in quarter final
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Team loses after leading 2-0
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
No red cards issued in the Final match
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
US goes further than Mexico
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
Freddy attends the final match
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
More own goals than red cards in tourney
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
Elon Musk attends match
Asian player gets the red card
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
2 UEFA teams in final
Player tears their ACL
Messi to score a free kick
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Flares in stands during match in USA
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Spain goes further than France
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Goal scored within 1st minute
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
VAR overturns second yellow card
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Any match is canceled or postponed
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
30+ penalty goals
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
Betting scandal reported
Canada goes further than US
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Ronaldo does not start
Team captain gets red card
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
Winning team has a foreign manager
Bald person gets the red card
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
Fans invade field during match
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Messi scores on every game he plays
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Player gets spat on during match
25+ people arrested at stadium
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Salt Bae attending a match
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
England loses on penalties
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Goal scored from own half
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Another match with 3+ red cards
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Asia team reaches semi final
Football is coming home?
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
King Charles attends match
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Trump attends 3 or more games
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Major security incident
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
15+ cards in any match
Player bit during match
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Bonnie Blue attending a match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Match is forfeited
Trump dancing at match
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
10+ goals in any match
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Team gets removed or disqualified
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Player shits in the pants during match
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Players / members of team attempt to defect
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Ronaldo does jerkin move
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
Player suffers cardiac arrest
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Player dies during World Cup
All 3 host countries win the opener
Ronaldo scores before Messi
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
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0
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0
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
97
96
95
95
94
93
91
91
90
90
90
90
89
87
87
86
85
85
84
83
82
80
77
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
69
69
68
68
68
65
62
60
60
59
59
59
58
58
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56
55
55
55
54
53
53
53
53
52
51
50
50
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13
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12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
13504
8507
OptionVotes
YES
NO
12479
8876
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2390
418
OptionProbability
Restaurant Botanic
At least one restaurant in the Barossa Valley gets a star
Penfolds Magill Estate Restaurant
Hardy's Verandah Restaurant
At least one restaurant on Kangaroo Island gets a star
Hentley Farm (Seppeltsfield)
Appellation at The Louise
LVN restaurant (Bird in Hand / Woodside)
Sunset Food and Wine (Kangaroo Island)
Restaurant Botanic receives 2+ stars
Maxwell Restaurant (McLaren Vale)
Arkhé
Fino (Seppeltsfield)
Anvers Wines (Kangarilla)
Africola
d'Arry's Verandah Restaurant (d'Arenberg, McLaren Vale)
Two or more restaurants receive 2+ stars
84
76
55
52
50
45
34
31
31
25
24
20
20
14
14
10
3
OptionProbability
The Northern Territory
South Australia
Western Australia
The Australian Capital Territory
New Zealand
Queensland
Somewhere Else
New South Wales
38
24
13
12
4
4
3
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1071
933
OptionProbability
South Africa win Series
Australia win series
Cummins is Captain
Cummins plays all the games
Rabada MoTS
Series Cancelled
Draw
54
48
41
41
34
27
24
OptionProbability
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038 or Later
52
32
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
No members leave or defect before parliament dissolves
Before 1 July 2026
July to December 2026
During 2027
2028 or later
27
18
18
18
18
OptionProbability
US allies with significant US troop presence (>10% of their own active military) and/or US-land-border e.g. Germany, Japan, Bahrain, Canada
US allies with moderate US troop presence (1-10% of their own active military) e.g. UK, Italy, Spain, South Korea, Australia
Russia-China allies within connected defence pacts e.g. Belarus, Kazakhstan, North Korea
Russia-China allies outside connected defence pacts e.g. Cuba, Syria, Iran
US allies with negligible US troop presence (<1% of their own active military) but within connected defence pacts e.g. France, Brazil
US allies with negligible US troop presence and outside connected defence pacts e.g. Switzerland, Ukraine, Taiwan
Nations outside both US and Russia-China geopolitical spheres e.g. India, South Africa, Indonesia
Russia
The US
Mainland China
72
55
55
55
37
37
37
28
24
24

