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Prediction markets for State House
Will the United States have more than 2,500,000 households without power before the end of 2025?
Jan 20, 4:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
63.28%chance
178721
OptionVotes
131
76
Poll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term?
Mar 20, 7:16 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM
54.32%chance
694251
OptionVotes
1138
866
OptionProbability
55
28
11
3
2
Will the United States have more than 1,000,000 households without power before the end of 2025 (starting April 30th)?
Apr 30, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.74%chance
143804
OptionVotes
2356
424
Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?
Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM
53.96%chance
151698
OptionVotes
10382
9514
Dems+GOP at all times hold >96% of each: US House, Senate, Governors, and state legislatures
Sep 6, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
93%chance
5801
OptionVotes
356
101
Will at least 75% of households in the United States own a car in 2035?
Jan 16, 11:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.19%chance
15404
OptionVotes
1115
950
Will the United States be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?
Mar 28, 2:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
80.36%chance
11339
OptionVotes
205
172
Will Xi Jinping be a guest of honor at a White House State Dinner by the end of 2028?
Jan 9, 9:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.64%chance
15107
OptionVotes
201
120
Conditional on a large-scale nuclear exchange involving the continental United States, will my house be hit with an EMP severe enough to damage any of our electronics?
Oct 6, 5:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
35.26%chance
997
OptionVotes
262
190
Will Donald J Trump visit the Massachusetts State House Capitol by EOY2028?
Feb 21, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.71%chance
370
OptionVotes
170
59
Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?
Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.42%chance
565
OptionVotes
4007
3989
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