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Prediction markets for Sumatra

Which of these proposed crossings (bridge, tunnel or a combination) will be open by the end of 2050?

Jan 1, 11:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31825

OptionProbability

Italian mainland to Sicily (Strait of Messina)

Scottish mainland to Orkney

Great Britain to the Isle of Wight

Bohai Strait crossing, China

Chinese mainland to Hainan (Qiongzhou Strait)

Suðuroy to Sandoy, Faroe Islands

Egypt to Saudi Arabia

Russian mainland to Sakhalin

Finland to Estonia

North Island to South Island, New Zealand (Cook Strait)

Sakhalin to Hokkaido

India to Sri Lanka (Palk Strait)

Java to Sumatra, Indonesia (Sunda Strait)

Morocco to Spain/Gibraltar (Strait of Gibraltar)

Great Britain to Ireland (Irish Sea)

Great Britain to the Isle of Man

Yemen to Dijbouti/Eritrea (Bab-el-Mandeb)

Japan to South Korea

Peninsular Malaysia to Sumatra (Malacca Strait)

Sicily to Tunisia (Strait of Sicily)

Russia to Alaska (Bering Strait)

Chinese mainland to Taiwan (Taiwan Strait)

80

69

69

69

69

69

63

59

59

50

41

34

31

28

25

20

20

20

20

14

13

3

Will the Sumatran Rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis) become extinct by 2100?

Feb 21, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

83.19%chance

11477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

726

433

Will the wild population of the Sumatran Rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis) become extinct by 2100?

Mar 1, 8:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.79%chance

3264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

676

436

Bridge built connecting Sumatra to Java through 2040

Aug 28, 1:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.22%chance

6192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

91

Will a crossing between Sumatra and Java have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.04%chance

7187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

277

83

Will the Sumatran Orangutan (Pongo abelii) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 5:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.48%chance

13131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

512

480

Will a crossing between Malaysia and Sumatra have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 1:33 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.54%chance

487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

59

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2024 and/or 2025?

Jan 17, 9:12 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

658

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Italy

Germany

Spain

Poland

Netherlands

Norway

Greece

Denmark

Portugal

Turkey

Belgium

100

100

100

100

64

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

24

Bridge built connecting Indonesia to Malaysia through 2040

Aug 28, 1:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.33%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

95

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