OptionProbability
Henry Oliver
Kim Bowes
Magnus Carlsen
C Thi Nguyen
Emily Wilson
Patrick Collison (again)
Rebecca Lowe
Dean Ball
Hollis Robbins
Francis Fukuyama
Tom Holland (the historian)
Jamie Dimon
Jan Swafford
Ted Chiang
Samuel Scheffler
Martha Nussbaum
Will Baude
Bishop Robert Barron
William Gibson
Sir Demis Hassabis
Vaclav Smil
Robert Sapolsky
Jonathan Sumption
Aella
Knausgaard (again)
Kathleen Tyson
John Ioannidis
David Runciman
William Hague
Ben Goldacre
Werner Herzog
Jensen Huang
Haruki Murakami
Cremieux
Michel Houellebecq
Hillary Clinton
Oprah Winfrey
Thomas Sowell
Bill Gates
Lana Del Rey
Novak Djokovic
Dua Lipa
Bari Weiss
Scott Alexander
100
92
78
66
55
52
48
46
45
42
41
34
31
30
28
27
24
21
20
17
16
15
14
10
9
8
7
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
177
56
229
44
102
91
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