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Ukraine conflict News

    Prediction markets for Ukraine conflict

    How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

    Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    684153557

    OptionProbability

    Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

    No cease-fire of 6 months

    Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

    Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

    No Ukraine anymore

    No Russia anymore

    61

    23

    9

    5

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    President with Green Eyes elected

    Crewed mission to Phobos

    USA adds 52nd state

    Room temperature superconductor discovered

    UK has a queen again

    24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th

    Olympics hosted in Japan again

    Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B

    RSA-2048 cracked

    Harlem Globetrotters lose again

    2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases

    The Beatles music enters the public domain

    Batman enters the public domain

    Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar

    Norway Bans Whaling

    human dies on the moon

    African company or country lands on moon

    Japan Bans Whaling

    Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M

    Pokemon Card sells for $10M

    First hispanic USA president

    Olympics hosted in Africa

    Longest suspension bridge record broken

    Team Fortress 3 releases

    Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle

    Pickleball in the Olympics

    End support date for Windows 12

    Grand Theft Auto 7 releases

    The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake

    USA fully ends embargo on Cuba

    Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO (after 2026)

    19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th

    USA Adds 51st state

    ChatGPT 10 releases

    Superman enters the public domain

    Human walks on mars

    The version after Windows 12 releases

    China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

    Centennial Lightbulb burns out

    Underwater hold breath world record broken

    Blood Meridian movie release

    Destiny retires from regular streaming

    First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

    Bugs Bunny enters public domain

    Windows 11 end support date

    Peppa Pig ends

    EU reaches 30 member states

    Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds

    Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time

    The first $10T market cap company

    Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

    Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases

    India hosts the Olympics

    1500 Pokemon Released

    Civilization 8 releases

    Star Citizen releases or company ceases

    Family Guy ends

    Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again

    Kingdom Hearts 4 releases

    First female USA president

    South Park ends

    Chicago ends on Broadway

    Manifold reaches 20K MAU

    Xi no longer in power in China

    James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases

    Simpsons ends

    Iceland Bans Whaling

    Another MLB perfect game pitched

    1300 Pokemon Released

    Sagrada Familia Church completed

    One piece manga ends

    Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken

    Human walks on moon again

    Trump Dies

    Book of Mormon ends on Broadway

    Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases

    Half Life 3 releases

    USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched

    Bitcoin reaches $150K USD

    Manifold reaches 40K MAU

    Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire

    Skibidi Toilet ends

    a third Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out

    ChatGPT 7 releases

    a USA president impeached again

    Putin no longer in power in Russia

    Shrek 5 releases

    Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

    marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA

    Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

    ChatGPT 6 releases

    First Trillionaire (USD)

    Human runs official marathon under 2h

    Price of gold hits $5000/oz

    The first $5T market cap company

    USA discontinues or changes penny coin

    Death Stranding 2 releases

    First $100B revenue media franchise

    New Pope after Francis

    Civilization 7 releases

    Bitcoin reaches $100K USD

    Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less

    Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship

    Sweden joins NATO

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    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1026

    40

    OptionProbability

    One Piece has ended

    Putin no longer leader of Russia

    Hasanabi retires from livestreaming

    a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

    China-Taiwan conflict fully starts

    MikeFromPA retires from livestreaming

    Ukraine-Russia conflict is resolved

    1500 or more official pokemon

    Vaush retires from livestreaming

    August retires / fired / is replaced as lead editor

    Destiny dies

    He gets married again

    pickleball in the olympics

    ukraine joins nato

    Plays Rust on stream again

    Human walks on the Moon again

    Human walks on Mars

    He has another child (or adopts one)

    Streams on Twitch again

    Chat GPT 8 has released

    American elects its 50th president (with Biden being #46, no Cleveland-conscious counting)

    Talks to a retired president

    Playstation 7 has released

    Bitcoin reaches $200K at least one time

    Talks to a sitting president while they are serving in office

    Someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

    Israel-Palestine conflict is resolved

    Filibuster is abolished

    91

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    OptionProbability

    By 2030-01-01

    By 2028-01-01

    By 2027-01-01

    73

    47

    8

    OptionProbability

    2026.4-2026.5

    2026.5-2026.6

    2026.6-2026.7

    2026.7-2026.8

    2026.8-2026.9

    2027.7-2027.8

    2027.8-2027.9

    2027.9-2028

    2028-2028.1

    2028.1-2028.2

    2028.2-2028.3

    2028.3-2028.4

    2028.4-2028.5

    2028.5-2028.6

    2028.6-2028.7

    2028.7-2028.8

    2027.3-2027.4

    2027.4-2027.5

    2027.5-2027.6

    2027.6-2027.7

    2028.8-2028.9

    2028.9-2029

    2029-2029.1

    2029.1-2029.2

    2029.2-2029.3

    2029.3-2029.4

    2029.4-2029.5

    2024.5-2024.6

    2024.6-2024.7

    2024.7-2024.8

    2024.8-2024.9

    2024.9-2025

    2025-2025.1

    2025.1-2025.2

    2025.2-2025.3

    2025.3-2025.4

    2025.4-2025.5

    2025.5-2025.6

    2025.6-2025.7

    2025.7-2025.8

    2025.8-2025.9

    2025.9-2026

    2026-2026.1

    2026.1-2026.2

    2026.2-2026.3

    2026.3-2026.4

    2026.9-2027

    2027-2027.1

    2027.1-2027.2

    2027.2-2027.3

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    OptionProbability

    Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too.

    With rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing.

    Geothermal energy is worth watching.

    Conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar.

    Russia and China will test America’s commitment to its allies with “grey-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea.

    Peace in Gaza will hold.

    97

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    End of Russian-Ukraine conflict in 2026?

    Oct 28, 8:38 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
    4.94%chance
    27942

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    439

    23

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    324

    31

    OptionProbability

    Immigration

    Unemployment

    High taxes

    Budget deficit

    US leadership in AI

    Livings costs

    Ukraine conflict

    Crime

    Inflation

    Housing costs

    Healthcare

    Gaza conflict

    100

    93

    90

    90

    82

    80

    80

    78

    67

    31

    28

    25

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    101

    99