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Prediction markets for 2020 Census

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?

May 30, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.38%chance

54593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5479

1093

Will the USA's population ever drop below 100 million by the end of 2025?

Jan 5, 5:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

183187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3483

916

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.23%chance

271685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

713

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

12.76%chance

231331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1296

931

How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at EOY 2027?

Mar 19, 9:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8992

OptionProbability

<10

10-19

20-29

30-39

40+

33

31

15

11

9

Will the majority of US households be "coupled" households in 2030?

Sep 11, 9:02 PMMay 26, 6:59 AM

92.79%chance

5477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

406

58

Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?

Oct 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.97%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

970

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Aug 30, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.92%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

1087

Will Kansas City Missouri have a population of over 550 thousand people in 2030 as reported by the US Census?

Nov 29, 4:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.61%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

77

Will studies conclude that driver-less cars reduce congestion in major American cities?

Sep 1, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.89%chance

7117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

145

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

285

OptionProbability

Melissa Hurtado (incumbent)

Mike Boudreaux

Other

79

10

10

Will the population of Mississippi reach 3 million people before 2050?

Sep 27, 6:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.9%chance

470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

59

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