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Prediction markets for Agent Mode

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

May 30, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1410120

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Cursor (custom model)

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

55

21

7

7

4

3

3

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.22%chance

162710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

949

Which company has best Computer Agent AI model end of 2025? (Computer Agent Arena Leaderboard)

Apr 8, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

272003

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

44

29

12

9

3

1

1

1

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will computer-using AI agents play Balatro better than me by eoy 2025?

Oct 29, 2:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.77%chance

15391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

46

Will all infectious diseases of all types be effectively eliminated from human civilization before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.94%chance

10351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

950

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