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Prediction markets for Agent Mode
Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?
Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM
26.41%chance
131634
OptionVotes
1675
600
At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?
Jul 1, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
89.73%chance
9906
OptionVotes
296
34
How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?
Sep 13, 11:19 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM
5379
OptionProbability
96
95
95
54
24
Will all infectious diseases of all types be effectively eliminated from human civilization before 2040?
Mar 17, 2:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5.94%chance
10351
OptionVotes
1281
950
At the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
Sep 1, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
87.12%chance
7205
OptionVotes
260
38
Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026?
Sep 12, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.04%chance
7203
OptionVotes
100
100
Will Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?
May 13, 4:12 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
12%chance
298
OptionVotes
176
85
Who will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a ≤$20/mo subscription on December 1st 2027?
Oct 29, 9:17 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
11
OptionProbability
39
39
8
5
5
5
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