OptionProbability
Cursor (custom model)
Anthropic
Google
OpenAI
Other
DeepSeek
xAI
74
9
8
3
1
Meta
Alibaba
83
10
2
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
998
982
Some variation of NSA (Native Sparse Attention)
>=25T pretraining tokens
>= 2 shared experts
>=52B active parameters
>=16 active experts
uses some non-AdamW optimizer
>=512 experts
1M+ Context
intra-expert communication
Some image input (multimodality)
>=1.5T parameters
DS-MoE with adaptative expert count
>= 50% on TerminalBench (https://www.tbench.ai/leaderboard)
>= 73% on SWE-Bench Verified (according to epoch.ai)
Gemini 2.5 Pro tier or higher on FictionBench (90.6%+ at 192k)
>= 60% on BrowseComp (https://www.kaggle.com/benchmarks/openai/browsecomp)
DeepSeek reports some results with a full-blown deep research agent, and emphasizes that this is the intended use-mode
>= 44% on Humanity's Last Exam (text only) at scale.com leaderboard
Releases before November
72
61
59
58
52
51
47
41
38
37
35
29
22
21
20
15
1224
822
426
23
1281
950
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