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Prediction markets for AI Act
OptionProbability
30
20
20
20
10
OptionProbability
38
36
10
9
7
Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2025?
Mar 10, 9:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
64446
OptionProbability
100
100
92
83
10
10
10
9
4
3
OptionProbability
52
36
14
2
Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?
May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM
67.04%chance
303185
OptionVotes
2582
1615
AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?
Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
58.64%chance
10641
OptionVotes
1191
840
My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029
Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
57%chance
9301
OptionVotes
1151
869
Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027
Feb 26, 1:53 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM
55.31%chance
5218
OptionVotes
252
179
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?
Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
44.93%chance
7176
OptionVotes
1107
903
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
50.47%chance
3107
OptionVotes
1059
1041
Will an AI system legally act as a healthcare proxy anywhere in the US by 2032?
Nov 27, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60%chance
457
OptionVotes
129
93
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