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Prediction markets for AI Cloud
Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?
Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM
19947448
OptionProbability
77
15
5
3
I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.36%chance
777061
OptionVotes
2141
1245
OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.83%chance
202800
OptionVotes
2870
348
AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?
May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
78.28%chance
101893
OptionVotes
1030
975
AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?
Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.52%chance
61498
OptionVotes
1440
694
Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.09%chance
231483
OptionVotes
1197
835
Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
71.03%chance
91028
OptionVotes
1566
639
When will a cloud provider attribute an incident resolution to an autonomous AI agent
Feb 25, 4:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
3599
OptionProbability
41
20
15
15
9
Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?
Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.91%chance
7487
OptionVotes
1319
797
OptionVotes
161
62
OptionVotes
1115
1009