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Prediction markets for AI Generative Forms
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
24.24%chance
1013752
OptionVotes
1843
1542
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.87%chance
323717
OptionVotes
1081
856
Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?
Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
54.61%chance
281702
OptionVotes
1032
938
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?
Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20.31%chance
61585
OptionVotes
5574
3482
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?
Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
66.28%chance
8844
OptionVotes
4652
3621
9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.
Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.78%chance
6671
OptionVotes
1221
822
Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?
Feb 23, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
69.65%chance
15361
OptionVotes
998
986
Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?
Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
24.57%chance
3280
OptionVotes
4054
3761
OptionVotes
1095
1027
Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?
Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.42%chance
565
OptionVotes
4007
3989
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.45%chance
365
OptionVotes
4047
3968
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