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Prediction markets for AI Mode
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.86%chance
831515860
OptionVotes
58238
10505
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM
57.35%chance
265151314
OptionVotes
11662
6844
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
44%chance
7429741
OptionVotes
11639
8508
[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
80.15%chance
7720977
OptionVotes
9071
3542
OptionProbability
34
30
22
5
3
2
2
2
Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?
Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
7%chance
249219
OptionVotes
3645
274
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.07%chance
1298015
OptionVotes
1846
1470
Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?
Apr 18, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
58.23%chance
261885
OptionVotes
1363
533
Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?
Sep 30, 1:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
43.32%chance
351702
OptionVotes
1337
608
Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?
Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.86%chance
201545
OptionVotes
1086
706
Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?
Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM
51.46%chance
12934
OptionVotes
1032
975
AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?
Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM
8823
OptionProbability
33
27
13
8
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
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