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Top stories

Leak Shows Meta ‘Celeste’ HUD Glasses Shipping With Neural Wristband

Leak Shows Meta ‘Celeste’ HUD Glasses Shipping With Neural Wristband

Authors

12

2 days ago

Microsoft Launches Free AI-Powered Copilot Mode in Edge on Windows and Mac, Featuring Multi-Tab Analysis and GPT-5 Smart Mode

Microsoft Launches Free AI-Powered Copilot Mode in Edge on Windows and Mac, Featuring Multi-Tab Analysis and GPT-5 Smart Mode

Authors

30

5 days ago

Apple’s Tim Cook Commits to AI Investment Amid Siri Delays, Perplexity Talks, and China Market Support

Apple’s Tim Cook Commits to AI Investment Amid Siri Delays, Perplexity Talks, and China Market Support

Authors

5

15 hours ago

Wiz Uncovers Critical SSO Bypass Flaw in AI-Powered Base44 Platform Patched by Wix; Related Crypto Theft and Ransomware Threats Emerge

Authors

4

1 day ago

Pew Finds Google AI Summaries Cut Clicks as Chatbot Referrals Climb

Authors

10

7 days ago

Nvidia-Backed Perplexity Courts Samsung and Airtel in Push for AI Browser Comet

Authors

11

9 days ago

Google Unveils ‘Web Guide’ AI Experiment to Cluster Search Results

Authors

6

9 days ago

Mercedes-Benz Integrates Microsoft Teams With In-Car Camera, Intune, and AI Copilot Into New CLA Model

Authors

11

8 days ago

Prediction markets for AI

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

38629965975

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10833

10539

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.94%chance

8014166168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3727

1788

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.8%chance

24021729741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9021

2682

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Mar 11, 5:11 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

6.06%chance

4631710990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6263

1698

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.05%chance

941600472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11197

8835

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.5%chance

455372687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3723

1531

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

12.09%chance

201282138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4175

1332

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.91%chance

176211240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5780

3435

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

70%chance

227113753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

655

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56%chance

20846475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2518

1141

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

6015052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9919

9893

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