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Google Brings Gemini CLI to Zed, Launches Open Agent Protocol
Authors
16
7 months ago
Prediction markets for AI
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.05%chance
433011800090
OptionVotes
25976
17882
OptionVotes
6481
2125
OptionVotes
3556
1814
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
87.32%chance
26492353698
OptionVotes
14083
1405
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50.42%chance
976741418
OptionVotes
10003
9896
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43%chance
592573784
OptionVotes
3255
1407
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
10.06%chance
826508702
OptionVotes
57414
10596
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
46%chance
547459947
OptionVotes
2969
2196
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
53.85%chance
277452830
OptionVotes
6206
2880
OptionVotes
4324
1312
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63%chance
342228245
OptionVotes
2044
1314
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.89%chance
328176705
OptionVotes
5396
4954