AI News
Top stories
Google Brings Gemini CLI to Zed, Launches Open Agent Protocol
Authors
16
8 months ago
Prediction markets for AI
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
26%chance
442912024119
OptionVotes
30183
16209
OptionVotes
6195
2142
OptionVotes
3498
1824
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
89.35%chance
26712400780
OptionVotes
15259
1250
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.86%chance
983744074
OptionVotes
10719
9239
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.86%chance
615651684
OptionVotes
5682
4007
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
65.39%chance
297534365
OptionVotes
5410
4066
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.86%chance
831515860
OptionVotes
58238
10505
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
44.5%chance
553464228
OptionVotes
2901
2279
OptionVotes
4332
1311
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60%chance
351261778
OptionVotes
1913
1396
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.61%chance
363203865
OptionVotes
5792
4778