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Top stories

Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul Siri

Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul Siri

Authors

70

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Alexa

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

61.8%chance

19845488

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1272

786

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11866

8858

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10%chance

10934526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

469

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3638

469

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.16%chance

65556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15218

6571

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.86%chance

193027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11784

8486

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

14.76%chance

312824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2221

1920

Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?

Jan 16, 9:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

71.91%chance

351960

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

965

Who will win the 2026 House election in NY-10 (or equivalent)?

Oct 29, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

161954

OptionProbability

Brad Lander

Dan Goldman

Alexa Aviles

Yuh-Line Niou

Cameron Kasky

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?

Mar 14, 11:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.12%chance

7466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Software
AI Modeling
AI Products
Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul Siri
Authors
70
1 year ago

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