Alexa News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Alexa
Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM
64.44%chance
19846246
OptionVotes
1346
743
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.6%chance
10842720
OptionVotes
11866
8858
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
10.54%chance
11135910
OptionVotes
1009
444
Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?
Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.91%chance
3026097
OptionVotes
31979
3127
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
84.14%chance
10914299
OptionVotes
3638
469
Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?
Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.75%chance
75706
OptionVotes
15368
6507
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?
Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM
14.43%chance
312874
OptionVotes
2271
1912
Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?
Jan 16, 9:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM
71.91%chance
351960
OptionVotes
1057
965
OptionProbability
99
0
0
0
0
0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?
Mar 14, 11:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
56.64%chance
7477
OptionVotes
1143
875
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.99%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1025
893
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71%chance
11196
OptionVotes
1008
988
Latest stories
Latest stories