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Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul Siri
Authors
70
10 months ago
Prediction markets for Alexa
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.6%chance
10842720
OptionVotes
11866
8858
Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM
65.08%chance
18841305
OptionVotes
1365
733
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
11.58%chance
10423514
OptionVotes
1014
401
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
76%chance
10913611
OptionVotes
2950
638
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?
Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM
16.66%chance
292574
OptionVotes
1971
1967
Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?
Jan 16, 9:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM
72.87%chance
331942
OptionVotes
1094
952
OptionProbability
91
7
1
0
0
0
Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?
Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
61.88%chance
7560
OptionVotes
1274
785
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.99%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1025
893
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?
Mar 14, 11:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
57.12%chance
7466
OptionVotes
1154
866
Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?
Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.07%chance
6425
OptionVotes
1275
784
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71%chance
11196
OptionVotes
1008
988
Latest stories
Latest stories
- Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul SiriAuthors7010 months ago