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Prediction markets for Alexa
Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM
61.55%chance
19243815
OptionVotes
1265
790
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.6%chance
10842720
OptionVotes
11866
8858
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
7.75%chance
10834087
OptionVotes
992
612
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
79.94%chance
10913899
OptionVotes
3238
556
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?
Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM
16.66%chance
292574
OptionVotes
1971
1967
Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?
Jan 16, 9:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM
71.91%chance
351960
OptionVotes
1057
965
OptionProbability
99
0
0
0
0
0
Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?
Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
61.88%chance
7560
OptionVotes
1274
785
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.99%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1025
893
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?
Mar 14, 11:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
57.12%chance
7466
OptionVotes
1154
866
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71%chance
11196
OptionVotes
1008
988
Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?
Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.45%chance
2110
OptionVotes
10090
9911
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