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Prediction markets for Ani
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.86%chance
831515860
OptionVotes
58238
10505
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM
103447144
OptionProbability
76
9
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?
Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
82.1%chance
88132314
OptionVotes
2739
903
Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?
Feb 27, 4:46 AMJan 20, 2:59 AM
7.22%chance
8256327
OptionVotes
35855
2789
Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?
May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
27.79%chance
3318998
OptionVotes
14362
7595
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.46%chance
2512587
OptionVotes
10935
9145
Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?
Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.91%chance
3511987
OptionVotes
18344
5235
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4310153
OptionVotes
10938
8979
Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?
Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
43.81%chance
284965
OptionVotes
10585
9510
OptionVotes
10197
8675
Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]
Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.85%chance
241567
OptionVotes
1201
926
By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?
Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.8%chance
11360
OptionVotes
10122
9934
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