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Prediction markets for Ani
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM
81158482
OptionProbability
76
19
10
8
7
6
4
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?
Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83.71%chance
85130764
OptionVotes
2919
859
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
28.13%chance
143124122
OptionVotes
14461
9183
Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy?
Mar 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.8%chance
1763384
OptionVotes
17229
5804
Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?
Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.18%chance
4131423
OptionVotes
13710
7373
OptionVotes
206
48
Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?
May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
27.82%chance
3118945
OptionVotes
14347
7601
OptionVotes
17652
5767
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
53.76%chance
419642
OptionVotes
11501
8468
Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?
Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
44.45%chance
141602
OptionVotes
10441
9624
By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?
Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.8%chance
11360
OptionVotes
10122
9934
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