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Prediction markets for API
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.8%chance
5626924
OptionVotes
114667
87209
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
3.41%chance
5016569
OptionVotes
5321
188
Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)?
Jun 20, 4:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
93.31%chance
227035
OptionVotes
2202
831
Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?
Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.92%chance
353339
OptionVotes
2182
677
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)
Jun 5, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.66%chance
9915
OptionVotes
591
91
Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?
Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
35.35%chance
7876
OptionVotes
10313
9761
Will Midjourney release a public API by the end of 2025?
Feb 11, 6:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60.26%chance
15461
OptionVotes
1173
544
Will API pose an existential threat to humanity before 2050?
Oct 2, 3:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7%chance
6430
OptionVotes
320
86
Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?
May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
35.95%chance
13376
OptionVotes
1200
853
Will OpenAI provide API access to o4 within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?
Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM
8.16%chance
8296
OptionVotes
335
30
Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027
May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM
59.5%chance
2232
OptionVotes
1212
825
OptionProbability
86
66
66
50
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