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Prediction markets for API
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
67.51%chance
9858808
OptionVotes
144853
69696
Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?
Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.42%chance
397097
OptionVotes
2486
796
Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?
Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.23%chance
373364
OptionVotes
1914
702
Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?
Jun 5, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.54%chance
41055
OptionVotes
1802
555
Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?
Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
35.35%chance
7876
OptionVotes
10313
9761
OptionVotes
183
55
Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027
May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM
70.93%chance
3582
OptionVotes
1562
640
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.92%chance
4194
OptionVotes
1022
979
OptionVotes
1143
875
Will Twitter (or API of Twitter) allow search restricted JUST to verified accounts by EOY2028?
Dec 29, 1:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
51.84%chance
670
OptionVotes
104
96
Will my QuickBin API be visibly used in a third-party project by 2030?
Dec 23, 7:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
62.7%chance
567
OptionVotes
273
210
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 1, 4:23 PMAug 20, 7:59 PM
68.73%chance
212
OptionVotes
105
97
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