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    Prediction markets for App Store

    OptionProbability

    Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

    Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

    Evan permabanned from Manifold

    Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

    Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

    Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

    Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

    Charlie Kirk dies

    Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

    government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

    Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

    South Park does an episode that alludes to it

    event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

    Another political assassination (either side)

    At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

    At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

    Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

    NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

    Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

    South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

    Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

    The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

    event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

    "Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

    Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

    Information reward money paid

    high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

    Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

    arson attack against gender clinic

    A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

    At least one furry convention canceled

    Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

    Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

    TPUSA supports a gun control bill

    Any Democratic politician is arrested

    5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

    Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

    Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

    Any news organization is shut down

    Any left-wing NGO is shut down

    A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

    A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

    80s-style moral panic over furries

    Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

    "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

    Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

    Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

    Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

    At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

    Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

    National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

    Kash Patel fired

    South Park canceled

    Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

    Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

    America becomes a one-party GOP state.

    5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

    Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)

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    83

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    25

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    1

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Has 10,000+ articles

    Contains egregious, easily verified falsehoods

    Contains AI-generated articles

    Accessible without login

    Standalone website (not just a Twitter/X feature)

    Content is under a free license

    Contains a "Wikipedia" article

    No entry for Mechahitler

    Has an entry for Manifold Markets

    Will actually be called "Grokipedia"

    left-wingers perceive that it is biased against them

    it is cringe

    It's proven (within a week after release) that Musk has personally influenced at least one article (eg. manual correction, edits to the prompt for just that article, “de-biasing”, etc)

    States that the race/ethnicity differences in IQ are mostly or entirely genetic

    Larry Sanger inserts himself into it somehow

    Uses Cloudflare to defend from scrapers

    Released in 2026

    Anyone can edit

    Administered by a partially-human editorial board

    Users will only be able to edit by prompting AI for changes

    Articles written in 10+ languages

    Has a way to see what specifically about an article was changed in a similar way to Wikipedia and other adjacent wikis

    right-wingers perceive that it is biased against them

    Grok will routinely check it when answering questions

    Not released before 2030

    Manifold likes it, according to a poll

    Contains advertisements

    Will be called Encyclopedia Galactica

    has an official app on the Apple App Store

    Uses a preexisting wiki engine or CMS

    States that the death toll of the (Jewish) Holocaust was <3 million

    Released in 2025

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    54

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    41

    35

    24

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    19

    16

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    9

    4

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    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1756

    569

    Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2026?

    Aug 9, 5:28 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM
    48.13%chance
    111020

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1047

    972

    OptionProbability

    Apple gets subjected to financial penalties

    Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.

    IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities

    The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.

    The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.

    The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.

    Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.

    Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).

    Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading

    The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

    The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.

    If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)

    The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices

    The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.

    The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.

    The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.

    The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.

    Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.

    The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.

    Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.

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    Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?

    Mar 27, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    33.29%chance
    20720

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    142

    71

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    365

    257

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1017

    984

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    103

    77

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