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Apple Pay News

    Prediction markets for Apple Pay

    Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

    Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
    16.92%chance
    817531

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3762

    454

    OptionProbability

    Apple gets subjected to financial penalties

    Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.

    IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities

    The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.

    The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.

    The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.

    Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.

    Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).

    Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading

    The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

    The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.

    If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)

    The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices

    The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.

    The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.

    The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.

    The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.

    Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.

    The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.

    Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.

    80

    66

    66

    66

    65

    62

    55

    55

    55

    52

    48

    48

    47

    47

    43

    40

    36

    36

    33

    32

    OptionProbability

    later than 2028 / never

    before the end of 2028

    before the end of 2027

    before the end of 2026

    before the end of 2024

    before the end of 2025

    63

    40

    33

    24

    0

    0

    Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

    Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    36.23%chance
    2160

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    133

    75

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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