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Prediction markets for Archie
Which Tier-1 studio/corporation will acquire The Architect (Siberian Node) first?
Apr 18, 11:54 AMDec 31, 12:21 PM
1931506
OptionProbability
96
2
1
0
0
0
Who will be selected for England’s final 26-man squad for the 2026 World Cup?
Jul 24, 4:32 PMJun 10, 10:59 PM
1622794
OptionProbability
95
94
93
92
92
90
89
88
88
86
86
84
82
75
72
66
66
65
65
64
61
58
56
55
54
53
44
43
41
40
31
31
28
20
20
19
17
16
15
15
14
14
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
33.07%chance
5810769
OptionVotes
11052
10904
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Aug 12, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
39.83%chance
363400
OptionVotes
1317
590
Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]
Sep 29, 5:17 PMSep 29, 5:14 PM
37.81%chance
92116
OptionVotes
1283
780
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
Aug 14, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.02%chance
211606
OptionVotes
1643
608
OptionVotes
2014
1765
Will Hachette v. Internet Archive be heard by the Supreme Court?
Mar 25, 4:26 AMJan 1, 1:00 PM
20.23%chance
22711
OptionVotes
1323
806
Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?
Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
57.29%chance
20702
OptionVotes
1105
867
Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]
Dec 25, 1:31 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
38.74%chance
15602
OptionVotes
1457
709
Mistborn/Stormlight Archive TV show/movie begins filming by EOY 2028?
Jan 28, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.1%chance
8365
OptionVotes
1104
744
By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?
May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM
62.04%chance
19362
OptionVotes
1010
954
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