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Argentine News

    Prediction markets for Argentine

    Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

    Dec 18, 5:45 PMDec 17, 6:59 AM
    16991287

    OptionProbability

    He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

    He leaves Argentina during his first term

    He travels to Chile during his first term

    He travels to Brazil during his first term

    He is photographed with Elon Musk

    Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

    Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

    A photo of him with Trump is released

    A photo of Milei with Biden is released

    His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

    Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

    Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

    He travels to Bolivia

    There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

    Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

    Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

    Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

    Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

    His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

    Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

    Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

    According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

    Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

    The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

    The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

    LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

    He wins reelection to a 2nd term

    Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

    LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

    He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

    A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

    Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

    Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

    He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

    He goes incommunicado for at least a week

    Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

    Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

    Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

    He marries during his first term

    He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

    US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

    He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

    There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

    He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

    Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

    He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

    Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

    He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

    He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

    The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

    Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

    The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

    He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

    He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

    He travels to Russia during his first term

    He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

    Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

    He has a child during his first term

    He is excommunicated by the catholic church

    There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

    Argentina will declare war

    He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

    He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

    He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

    He passes away during his first term before completion

    Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

    He officially converts to Judaism

    Will Argentina join BRICS?

    Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

    Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    94

    92

    91

    88

    86

    84

    84

    83

    72

    71

    55

    55

    50

    48

    48

    45

    44

    41

    40

    38

    36

    29

    28

    27

    27

    26

    26

    26

    25

    23

    23

    21

    20

    19

    17

    13

    11

    11

    8

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    0

    Will Javier Milei be reelected for a second term as the President of Argentina?

    Dec 21, 6:40 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    46%chance
    11341449

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1067

    913

    Will Argentina dollarize its economy before 2028?

    Aug 17, 3:52 AMJan 1, 3:49 AM
    10.62%chance
    24639901

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2078

    52

    Will Argentina adopt the US Dollar by 2029?

    Aug 14, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    14.87%chance
    14931059

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2740

    831

    Will Argentina adopt U.S dollar as its legal tender by 2030?

    Jun 15, 8:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    16.73%chance
    11429736

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2413

    594

    Members of the Board of Peace?

    Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 11:01 PM
    3822451

    OptionProbability

    Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

    Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

    Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Javier Milei (Argentine President)

    Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

    Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

    Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

    Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

    Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

    Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

    Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

    Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

    Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

    Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

    Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

    Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

    Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

    Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

    United Kingdom

    Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

    Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

    Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

    Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

    Emmanuel Macron (French President)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    69

    20

    15

    15

    15

    10

    8

    8

    7

    5

    5

    Will Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?

    Feb 22, 9:47 AMOct 21, 2:59 AM
    7221496

    OptionProbability

    Yes, but he will not be re-elected.

    Yes, and he will be re-elected.

    No, he will not finish his first term.

    51

    46

    2

    What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

    Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    13216102

    OptionProbability

    Between 2% and 4%

    Between 4% and 6%

    Between 0% and 2%

    < -2%

    Between -2% and 0%

    More than 6%

    Other

    42

    35

    10

    4

    4

    4

    0

    Will Javier Milei abolish the Argentinian central bank?

    Nov 20, 12:30 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
    3.93%chance
    15512616

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2953

    23

    Will the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?

    May 22, 11:36 PMJan 1, 1:59 AM
    17.54%chance
    192440

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1138

    968

    What year will the last Argentine Peso be printed?

    Nov 21, 7:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    141759

    OptionProbability

    After 2025

    Other

    2025

    2030

    2023

    2024

    51

    23

    20

    4

    1

    1

    What will be the value of the Argentine Peso at the end of 2027?

    Nov 19, 11:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    9350

    OptionProbability

    > $0.0001

    The Argentine Peso will not exist as of that time

    > $0.0010

    > $0.0028

    56

    37

    28

    23

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