Articles of Association News
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Prediction markets for Articles of Association
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
76.02%chance
6514148
OptionVotes
1660
648
Will Zelensky remain president of Ukraine until the end of 2026?
Nov 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
92.98%chance
233733
OptionVotes
3639
275
Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?
Jun 8, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
12.22%chance
203337
OptionVotes
2681
373
Long Thanh airport becomes a national embarrassment for Vietnam?
Apr 25, 6:51 AMMay 2, 6:48 AM
25.55%chance
111632
OptionVotes
1707
586
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
16.21%chance
231543
OptionVotes
999
876
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
28.12%chance
251306
OptionVotes
1669
510
Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?
May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM
31.11%chance
101159
OptionVotes
1488
672
Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?
May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.85%chance
11976
OptionVotes
1739
575
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
Nov 21, 3:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
10%chance
30951
OptionVotes
1285
943
Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?
Aug 25, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
5.27%chance
18917
OptionVotes
1641
919
Major news report linking Praxis city project and (neo) Feudalism (before 2027)
Sep 14, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:28 AM
81.29%chance
494
OptionVotes
167
57