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Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

15.29%chance

9117542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2670

2113

Which company has best Text-to-Video AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)

Dec 18, 7:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

343769

OptionProbability

Google DeepMind

ByteDance

MiniMax

Other

OpenAI

Kuaishou

Tencent

Genmo

Runway

Haiper

40

34

8

7

4

3

2

1

1

1

Which company has best Text-to-Image AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)

Dec 18, 7:21 AMDec 31, 8:09 PM

143106

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Other

Midjourney

HiDream

Black Forest Labs (FLUX)

Ideogram

Stability.ai

Playground AI

Amazon

DeepSeek

Blueberry

26

21

15

7

7

6

4

4

3

3

3

2

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.02%chance

432874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

945

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will an AI be capable of substituting for a high-quality criminal defense lawyer before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.89%chance

10240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

162

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.13%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

849

Will Terence Tao publish a Math paper such that some result was solved by AI before 2028?

May 28, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.92%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.65%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

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