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Audio News

    Prediction markets for Audio

    OptionProbability

    Groq

    Stability AI

    Mistral AI

    ElevenLabs (audio)

    Runway AI

    Figure AI

    Cohere

    Grammarly

    Perplexity

    Devin (Cognition)

    Pinecone (database)

    Magic (coding)

    Midjourney

    Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

    Hugging Face

    DataBricks

    Suno (music)

    Anthropic

    xAI

    SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

    OpenAI

    32

    32

    30

    27

    26

    25

    25

    25

    24

    24

    24

    23

    18

    16

    15

    13

    11

    5

    5

    5

    3

    Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

    Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    13.08%chance
    5529537

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    24482

    4980

    GPT-5 capabilities at launch - make your predictions

    Nov 10, 4:39 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM
    1107682

    OptionProbability

    Audio Modality(Input or Output)

    Would qualify for AIME given screenshots of the AMC 10 questions, from the AMC 10 released soonest after GPT-5 release

    Image Modality(Output)

    Context size >= 200k

    Able to solve easy Sudoku puzzles with prompting

    Context size >= 500k

    Video modality(Input or Output)

    Context size >= 1000k

    to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market

    Exact query of custom knowledge datasets(e.g. Google RETRO, where users can provide their own datasets)

    Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price will be lower)

    New Neural Network Architecture

    Context size >= 2000k

    Online learning(agent finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)

    Capable of online learning

    Able to precisely count the amount of triangles there is in a image of non-overlapping radomly placed shapes(for images with less than 50 shapes)

    95

    95

    93

    93

    77

    74

    71

    67

    48

    40

    35

    33

    32

    15

    15

    14

    What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?

    Mar 17, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    262699

    OptionProbability

    It will have Audio(Input) modality

    It will have Audio(Output) modality

    It can score Bronze or higher on IMO

    It will have Video(Input) modality

    It will have Video(Output) modality

    It will have been released in H2 2025

    Its main name is GPT-5

    It is #1 in Elo according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

    It has an anthropomorphic name

    It will have been released in H1 2025

    93

    85

    85

    75

    74

    74

    55

    51

    43

    1

    OptionProbability

    Has eye tracking

    Has external battery

    Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

    Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

    Has built in speakers for audio

    Will have a glass front

    Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

    Priced under $2,000

    Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

    Has "Air" in its name

    Primarily made of aluminum

    Has an external display (like eyesight)

    Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

    Priced under $1000

    Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

    Priced lower than $199

    Priced lower than $299

    In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025

    95

    87

    84

    72

    72

    66

    50

    50

    50

    49

    48

    38

    19

    18

    13

    7

    5

    4

    OptionProbability

    Restrictions on deepfake audio, images, or videos of real people

    Restrictions on pornographic deepfakes

    A classification system of AI applications into at least two different risk categories, with different non-empty regulations on each

    Increased liability for harms caused by AI technology

    Restrictions on training models on copyrighted material

    Restrictions on AI models above a certain size or amount of compute

    46

    45

    29

    23

    20

    13

    What do you think will be GPT-5's "hook"?

    Nov 10, 4:10 PMJan 2, 9:50 AM
    421763

    OptionProbability

    Very large context window, or another way to give the model long-term memory

    Audio Modality

    Operates autonomously with instructions from you

    capable of online learning

    Personalized to you, the user

    Online learning of specialized agents(finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)

    Video Modality

    Exact-query of training data or knowledge databases(similar to Google RETRO)

    (Near) real-time update of training data (data delay is within 6 months and is kept updated)

    New Neural Network Architecture

    Faster speed(smaller model, architecture improvements, mixture of experts keeping most parameters unused during inference, etc.)

    Seed option to create the question

    Acts autonomously

    Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price must be lower)

    Has a catchier name

    72

    64

    57

    56

    55

    45

    40

    38

    34

    31

    25

    24

    21

    19

    19

    Will an album using synthetic audio be my favorite album of 2025?

    Dec 19, 5:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    32.49%chance
    5579

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1441

    694

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1009

    991

    OptionProbability

    Best Game Direction

    Best Role Playing Game

    Best Score and Music

    Best Audio Design

    Best Action/Adventure Game

    Players' Voice

    Best Narrative

    Best Art Direction

    Best Independent Game

    Best Community Support

    Best Sim / Strategy Game

    Best Multiplayer Game

    Best Performance

    Best Action Game

    Best Debut Independent Game

    Best Ongoing Game

    Best VR/AR Game

    Best Fighting Game

    Best Family Game

    Best Sports / Racing Game

    Games for Impact

    Best Mobile Game

    88

    85

    72

    26

    26

    25

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    18

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    3

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1275

    940

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