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Audio News

    Prediction markets for Audio

    OptionProbability

    The Jews control at least one nation's government

    The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

    Imane Khelif is intersex

    Dream faked the Manhunt videos

    Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

    Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

    DHMO in the water supply

    The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

    Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

    Santa is rigged

    That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

    √-1 isn't real

    Smartphones listen in on private conversations

    The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

    Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

    US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

    Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

    Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

    Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

    The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

    Groundhog Day is rigged

    ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.

    That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

    Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

    Dead Internet theory

    Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true

    The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

    Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

    There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

    Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

    Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

    Gamergate was right

    Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

    Annie Altman's abuse claims

    The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

    John McAfee didn't kill himself

    The Clintons assasinated their rivals

    Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

    At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

    The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

    An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

    The NBA rigs the draft lottery

    The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

    Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

    FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

    China made covid 19 in a lab

    Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

    This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

    Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

    The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

    Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

    Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.

    Rory Stewart worked for MI6

    At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

    Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA

    My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

    Eating your veggies is bad for your health

    Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

    The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.

    Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

    The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

    As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

    Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

    The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

    @strutheo is @notrickspringfield

    Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

    Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

    The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

    Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

    The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

    lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

    The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

    Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

    Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

    A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

    Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

    Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    China was not genociding Uyghurs

    Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

    The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

    The CIA killed JFK

    Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

    The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

    Sue Gray was a spy

    Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

    We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.

    COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

    A cure for cancer has already been found

    covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

    The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.

    Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

    The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

    US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

    Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

    Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

    "Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

    Princess Diana was assassinated

    The NFL is rigged

    Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

    Harold Holt murdered

    ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.

    Bush did 9/11

    Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

    Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

    Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

    South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

    Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

    Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

    The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

    You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

    Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

    Israel killed JFK

    Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

    Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

    Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"

    The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

    Ogopogo is real

    QAnon

    Exercise is bad for your health

    A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

    Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

    Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

    Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

    carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

    Allen Iverson invented A.I.

    The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

    The Mandella Effect in general is real

    Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

    Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

    Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

    The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

    Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026

    Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

    Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

    QR codes are satanic

    The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

    Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

    Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

    Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.

    China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

    Human didnt evolve from apes

    Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

    Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

    Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

    Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

    Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

    South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

    Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

    xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

    @HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

    Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Rationalussy isn't real.

    US government is harboring aliens

    Tupac is still alive in 2024

    Bielefeld does not exist

    Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

    The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

    The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

    The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

    The illuminati runs the world

    Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

    Birds aren't real

    climate change isn't human caused

    Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

    Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

    Climate change isn’t real

    The moon landing was fake

    The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

    The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

    The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

    The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.

    Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

    *All* health care is net negative for health

    Q is Putin

    Michelle Obama is a man

    Brazilian money is not real

    Yeti is real or similar creature

    The earth is a dodecahedron

    Skibidi Toilet is real

    Earth is hollow

    It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

    Nuclear weapons have never existed

    Africa isn't real

    Flossing is bad for your health

    HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

    Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

    There is no female orgasm

    The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

    The earth is flat

    *All* vaccines are net negative for health

    End of the world in 2012

    Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

    Finland isn't real

    Australia isn't real.

    5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

    Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

    Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

    The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

    Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001

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    What do you think will be GPT-5's "hook"?

    Nov 10, 4:10 PMJan 2, 9:50 AM
    624359

    OptionProbability

    No model picker

    Personalized to you, the user

    Trained on synthetic data

    Very large context window, or another way to give the model long-term memory

    Faster speed(smaller model, architecture improvements, mixture of experts keeping most parameters unused during inference, etc.)

    Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price must be lower)

    Exact-query of training data or knowledge databases(similar to Google RETRO)

    Online learning of specialized agents(finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)

    Operates autonomously with instructions from you

    capable of online learning

    New Neural Network Architecture

    Seed option to create the question

    (Near) real-time update of training data (data delay is within 6 months and is kept updated)

    Audio Modality

    Acts autonomously

    Has a catchier name

    Video Modality

    89

    74

    68

    54

    51

    47

    38

    37

    34

    32

    28

    24

    22

    21

    21

    16

    1

    OptionProbability

    Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% grunts/yells/screams/etc original to the movie

    Bowser is at his ordinary size (no Mini Mushroom or giant form) for at least 35 minutes of runtime

    Beach bowl galaxy is featured

    Released in the United States on April 3, 2026

    Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% reused audio from the games

    Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% real words

    The word "delve" (or variants) is spoken

    Donkey Kong physically appears and says an intelligible word

    The words "sunshine" and/or "odyssey/ies" are spoken

    Someone will climb onto Honey Queen and scratch her back

    100

    100

    7

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Has eye tracking

    Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

    Has external battery

    Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

    Has built in speakers for audio

    Will have a glass front

    Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

    Priced under $2,000

    Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

    Has "Air" in its name

    Primarily made of aluminum

    Has an external display (like eyesight)

    Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

    Priced under $1000

    Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

    Priced lower than $199

    Priced lower than $299

    In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025

    95

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    38

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    18

    13

    7

    5

    4

    OptionProbability

    Restrictions on deepfake audio, images, or videos of real people

    Restrictions on pornographic deepfakes

    A classification system of AI applications into at least two different risk categories, with different non-empty regulations on each

    Increased liability for harms caused by AI technology

    Restrictions on training models on copyrighted material

    Restrictions on AI models above a certain size or amount of compute

    43

    43

    29

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    13

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1128

    886

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1169

    952

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1116

    1014

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    300

    151

    OptionProbability

    Sennheiser family buyback

    Other

    Samsung (including Harman)

    No buyer (Sonova winds down or retains)

    Sony

    Bose

    Platinum Equity

    KKR

    Apple

    18

    17

    12

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    7

    OptionProbability

    Before 2025-12-31

    2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

    2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

    2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

    2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

    No translation is published before 2028

    17

    17

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