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Prediction markets for Bash

Will Bashar al-Assad survive 2025?

Dec 7, 11:01 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

92.76%chance

6621067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3570

395

Tim + Bashu (Intrusive Thoughts) stock

Feb 11, 5:40 AM

264369

OptionProbability

NO

YES

548

408

will i drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:38 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

24.53%chance

333018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1769

512

Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?

Aug 7, 7:28 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

7%chance

252041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

833

Will Aonishiki be Sekiwake for the September 2025 Banzuke? (Sumo Aki Basho)

Jul 28, 4:27 PMSep 1, 4:27 PM

18.58%chance

41129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2093

478

Bashar and Asma al-Assad married through 2025?

Dec 24, 3:46 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

62.35%chance

9850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

777

AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030?

May 4, 9:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.41%chance

9385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

128

Have I intellectually outpaced Destiny?

Dec 12, 2:35 PMOct 12, 10:59 PM

68.83%chance

779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

132

Which will be independent first: Texas or Bashkortostan?

Dec 29, 7:21 PMFeb 12, 7:59 AM

331

OptionProbability

Bashkortostan

Texas

62

38

Will Qiaochu Yuan and Brian Basham ever talk again by EOY 2026?

Jan 3, 11:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

Will Harrison manage to obtain and maintain a relationship from before this bash to next bash (2025)

Jun 30, 11:02 AMOct 10, 1:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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