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Prediction markets for Best Group
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.94%chance
12429808
OptionVotes
2370
674
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
57.09%chance
179858
OptionVotes
13202
6235
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
20.78%chance
559461
OptionVotes
3422
3106
OptionVotes
2589
1201
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
606627
OptionProbability
21
15
14
8
6
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
76.81%chance
364979
OptionVotes
1814
549
OptionVotes
1100
843
Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?
Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM
6.54%chance
183382
OptionVotes
2924
61
OptionVotes
1526
624
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?
Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM
26%chance
23758
OptionVotes
1153
907
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.23%chance
16261
OptionVotes
994
994
Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?
Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
44.93%chance
7176
OptionVotes
1107
903