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Prediction markets for Best Group
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.46%chance
10619842
OptionVotes
1771
1288
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
20.78%chance
559461
OptionVotes
3422
3106
OptionVotes
2438
1224
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
546125
OptionProbability
13
13
13
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
1
0
0
0
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.81%chance
114493
OptionVotes
10081
9577
OptionVotes
1045
833
OptionVotes
2304
434
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.86%chance
282754
OptionVotes
1252
794
OptionVotes
1430
643
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?
Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM
23.65%chance
21688
OptionVotes
1258
872
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?
Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
44.93%chance
7176
OptionVotes
1107
903