Breaking Free News
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Prediction markets for Breaking Free
How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?
Jun 18, 2:24 PMDec 31, 2:03 PM
148605
OptionProbability
100
100
100
86
80
77
75
73
69
67
64
64
58
57
57
56
54
54
52
50
50
48
44
0
Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
Mar 12, 8:05 PMJan 20, 8:49 PM
9.35%chance
406451
OptionVotes
3114
321
Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?
Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM
10.09%chance
364362
OptionVotes
2985
335
OptionVotes
5453
4042
GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM
46.63%chance
213403
OptionVotes
1302
613
If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
51.21%chance
372471
OptionVotes
1329
280
Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?
Sep 30, 3:59 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM
83.65%chance
20490
OptionVotes
1246
924
OptionVotes
1221
819
Will US reported losses from voice-cloning or deepfake impersonation scams exceed $1 billion for calendar year 2027?
Oct 30, 4:29 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
19.22%chance
2105
OptionVotes
205
49
OptionVotes
180
56
Will there be, or has there been an instance of "Habituation" in a p2p network
Dec 3, 2:41 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM
52.99%chance
426
OptionVotes
112
108
By 2030, will Tumbles be satisfied with the institutional response to any MAGA officials?
Feb 12, 7:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
4.95%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
100


