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Prediction markets for Breakthrough
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
Mar 28, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.71%chance
12821976
OptionVotes
2895
796
Will there be a breakthrough communicating with animals and AI in 2025
Jan 15, 3:29 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM
13.06%chance
305419
OptionVotes
2580
388
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.71%chance
203624
OptionVotes
1517
659
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
Mar 20, 1:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
13.81%chance
172040
OptionVotes
2498
400
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
Aug 23, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.74%chance
141715
OptionVotes
2357
424
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Aug 23, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.65%chance
131358
OptionVotes
1091
916
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?
Aug 23, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
80.82%chance
81279
OptionVotes
2053
487
Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to deep learning?
Aug 27, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71.54%chance
26829
OptionVotes
1068
960
Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?
Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.32%chance
22745
OptionVotes
1084
647
Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?
Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
41.32%chance
13711
OptionVotes
1206
382
Will humanity produce it’s first in lab net positive fusion energy breakthrough by end 2028 ?
Nov 21, 7:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.01%chance
16631
OptionVotes
1162
800
Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?
Dec 16, 11:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
74.09%chance
22459
OptionVotes
998
981
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