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Top stories

JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for by

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

9.51%chance

2422006774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3988

1361

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45%chance

21071877945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4797

3929

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.29%chance

1561087508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

813

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

82.58%chance

351782996

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218024

45679

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.42%chance

976741418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10003

9896

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.13%chance

496718382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16276

14269

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

591573712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3255

1407

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57414

10596

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.85%chance

277452830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6206

2880

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

57.19%chance

193358760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

866

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

48.26%chance

252212038

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

981

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.98%chance

18941852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9995

9955

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JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft
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7 months ago

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