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Top stories

JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for by

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

13.97%chance

2492021198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2858

1508

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

42.8%chance

21791948676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5016

3757

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.68%chance

985744202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10678

9273

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.63%chance

619656332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5665

4033

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

88.48%chance

336644389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11092

3630

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

66%chance

286265221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

641

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

82.65%chance

415213145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16507

7941

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

4765967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130486

84436

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.9%chance

19242525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10424

9668

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.56%chance

15528098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

693

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Aug 22, 2025
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JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft
Authors
5
10 months ago

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